Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Saturday, March 14, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage) — UFC Apex, Las Vegas
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Amanda Lemos
15-5-1
Amanda Lemos
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Gillian Robertson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Amanda Lemos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2025 | Tatiana Suarez | L | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Iasmin Lucindo | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Virna Jandiroba | L | Submission (R2) (2, 3:42) |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Mackenzie Dern | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Zhang Weili | L | Decision (Unanimous) (5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Gillian Robertson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2025 | Marina Rodriguez | W | Submission (R2) (2, 4:15) |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Luana Pinheiro | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Polyana Viana | W | Submission (R2) (2, 3:50) |
| Jun 24, 2023 | Tabatha Ricci | L | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70.0 vs 52.0) and Grappling Composite (68.5 vs 67.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Amanda Lemos Key Advantages
Lemos carries genuine one-punch knockout power with 53% of her wins coming by KO/TKO. Her 4.48 significant strikes landed per minute combines volume with authority — she doesn't just touch opponents, she hurts them. Her left hand and body kicks are particularly devastating, and Robertson's 48% striking defense means she'll absorb clean shots regularly. In the small cage, Lemos can cut off Robertson's movement and land fight-changing power shots as Robertson looks to close distance for takedowns. The Brazilian's ability to end fights suddenly makes every exchange dangerous for Robertson.
Lemos lands 48% of her significant strikes compared to Robertson's 40%, meaning she's more efficient with her output and lands cleaner shots. Her 4.48 SLpM vs Robertson's 3.21 gives her a meaningful volume advantage on the feet. Lemos also absorbs fewer strikes per minute (4.62 SApM) compared to Robertson (5.27), creating a damage economy that favors the Brazilian when the fight stays standing. Her superior striking defense (52% vs 48%) compounds this advantage, meaning she both lands more and gets hit less. In a three-round fight, this efficiency difference can be decisive on the scorecards.
Lemos defends 68% of takedowns, meaning Robertson will need multiple attempts to get the fight to the ground. In the clinch, Lemos can punish Robertson with knees, elbows, and short punches while Robertson burns energy on failed takedown attempts. The small cage creates more clinch opportunities, but Lemos can use her 65-inch reach and superior striking to damage Robertson during entries. Her ability to stuff takedowns and immediately counter with power shots creates a risk-reward imbalance that discourages Robertson from committing to shots. Each failed takedown attempt exposes Robertson to Lemos's most dangerous weapons at close range.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Robertson's 3.49 takedowns per 15 minutes is among the highest in women's MMA. If she can consistently get the fight to the ground, Lemos's striking advantages become neutralized. Robertson's relentless chain wrestling — she averages 5/17 TD attempts per fight — means she'll keep shooting even after stuffed attempts. In the small cage, Robertson can pin Lemos against the fence and work her wrestling sequences more effectively. If Robertson establishes top position early, she can drain Lemos's energy through ride time and prevent the Brazilian from finding her range.
Lemos's 9:31 average fight duration and tendency to front-load damage creates vulnerability if Robertson survives the early onslaught. If the fight goes deep into Round 3 with Robertson controlling pace through grappling, Lemos may struggle to maintain her striking output. Robertson's 11:44 average fight duration shows she's built for longer fights. The Brazilian's power output tends to diminish as rounds progress, making her less threatening on the feet and more vulnerable to Robertson's persistent takedown attempts. If Lemos can't finish early, the fight increasingly tilts toward Robertson's grappling-heavy approach.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Lemos should control range with her jab and rear hand, targeting Robertson's entry attempts. She needs to punish takedown attempts with knees in the clinch and quick disengages. Her best path is to end this early — if she can hurt Robertson in the first round, the fight changes dramatically. Leg kicks to slow Robertson's entries and timing an overhand or left hook as Robertson level changes are her primary weapons. The Brazilian's 48% striking accuracy ensures she'll land these counter shots with consistency while Robertson commits to shoots.
Lemos should use leg kicks heavily to compromise Robertson's mobility and takedown entries. Body kicks can sap Robertson's energy and make her hesitant to close distance. By targeting the legs and body, Lemos can slow Robertson's relentless pace while accumulating damage that compounds over three rounds. Her superior reach (65" vs 63") allows her to land these strikes from outside Robertson's takedown range, creating a scoring cushion while minimizing grappling exchanges. If Lemos can keep Robertson at the end of her punches and kicks, the Canadian's wrestling becomes far less effective.
🚀 Gillian Robertson Key Advantages
Robertson averages 3.49 takedowns per 15 minutes with 32% accuracy, representing one of the highest volumes in women's MMA. Her relentless chain-wrestling approach means she'll shoot early, often, and persistently. Against Lemos's 68% takedown defense, Robertson will need multiple attempts but her volume ensures she'll eventually get through. Once on the mat, Robertson can neutralize Lemos's striking superiority entirely, controlling the pace and accumulating ride time. The small 25ft cage compounds this advantage by reducing the space Lemos has to circle away from takedown entries and fence-based wrestling sequences.
Robertson's submission game is her most dangerous weapon — 56% of her wins come by submission, with 9 career submission victories across rear-naked chokes, arm triangles, and guillotines. She averages 1.3 sub attempts per 15 minutes, maintaining persistent threat even when not in dominant position. Her ability to chain submission attempts from various positions means any scramble or transition becomes dangerous for Lemos. Robertson's grappling composite of 67.0 vs Lemos's 68.5 shows these fighters are closely matched on the ground, but Robertson's finishing instinct and submission variety give her the edge in extended grappling exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lemos's knockout power (53% KO rate) is the single biggest threat to Robertson's gameplan. Every time Robertson closes distance for a takedown, she exposes herself to Lemos's overhand left, uppercuts, and knees. Robertson's 48% striking defense means she'll absorb clean shots during entries. If Lemos hurts Robertson early, the Canadian's wrestling becomes compromised — hurt fighters struggle to chain takedowns effectively. Robertson's 5.27 SApM absorption rate suggests she takes significant damage on the feet, and one clean power shot from Lemos could end the fight before Robertson's grappling advantage takes effect.
If Robertson can't establish takedowns consistently, the fight becomes a striking contest where she's heavily disadvantaged. Lemos outstrikes her by +1.27 SLpM (4.48 vs 3.21) with better accuracy (48% vs 40%). Robertson's 40% striking accuracy and lower volume mean she'll lose exchanges on points and potentially take accumulative damage. The longer the fight stays on the feet, the more Robertson is exposed to Lemos's power and the less her submission game matters. If Lemos can stuff early takedowns and make Robertson pay with counter strikes, the Canadian may become gun-shy about committing to shots, further compounding the standing disadvantage.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Robertson needs to close distance immediately and establish takedowns in the first round before Lemos can find her range. Using feinted strikes to set up level changes, Robertson should target single-legs and body locks against the cage. Her 3.49 TD/15min volume means she'll keep shooting until she gets through Lemos's 68% defense. Once on top, Robertson should prioritize control time and submission attempts rather than ground-and-pound, using her 67.0 grappling composite to chain positions and drain Lemos's energy while threatening finishes.
Once Robertson achieves takedowns, she should immediately transition to submission attempts rather than holding position. Her 56% submission win rate and 1.3 sub attempts per 15 minutes show she's most dangerous when actively hunting finishes on the ground. Cycling between arm triangles, rear-naked chokes, and guillotines keeps Lemos guessing and prevents the Brazilian from settling into defensive positions. Robertson should view each takedown as a finishing opportunity rather than a control sequence, maximizing her advantage in the limited three-round window.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot small octagon at the UFC Apex creates a compressed fighting environment that significantly impacts this matchup. For Lemos, the reduced space means she can cut off Robertson's movement more effectively and land her power shots from shorter distances. However, the small cage is a double-edged sword — Robertson can close distance faster for takedown attempts and pin Lemos against the fence more easily. The confined space limits Lemos's ability to circle away from shots and reset at range, which is where her striking advantage is most pronounced. Historically, grapplers tend to benefit more from the small cage as it reduces the distance they need to cover for takedown entries.
🎯Technical Breakdown
This fight presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic with clear statistical divergence. Lemos holds meaningful advantages in striking volume (4.48 vs 3.21 SLpM), accuracy (48% vs 40%), and power output (53% KO rate). Robertson counters with elite takedown volume (3.49 TD/15min) and submission threat (56% sub win rate, 1.3 sub attempts per 15 minutes). The key variable is fight location — on the feet, Lemos is clearly superior; on the ground, Robertson can neutralize that advantage entirely. Lemos's 68% takedown defense is good but not elite, and Robertson's persistent chain-wrestling means she'll get opportunities to bring the fight to the mat. The technical composite scores are closer than expected (69.25 vs 59.5 overall), reflecting Robertson's grappling ability offsetting her striking gaps.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical areas will determine the outcome: first, Robertson's ability to close distance and secure takedowns against Lemos's 68% defense and counter-striking; second, whether Lemos can land fight-changing power shots during Robertson's entries; and third, the pace and energy management over three rounds. Robertson's 3.49 TD/15min volume suggests she'll average 7+ takedown attempts across three rounds, and even with Lemos defending 68%, that creates multiple ground sequences where Robertson can work her submission game. Conversely, Lemos's 53% KO rate means every standing exchange carries threat. The fight likely comes down to Round 2 — if Robertson has established consistent takedowns by then, she can ride out the decision; if Lemos is stuffing shots and landing clean, Robertson's path narrows significantly.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Gillian Robertson by Submission (35% probability), achieved through persistent takedown pressure, chain wrestling, and her dangerous submission game from top position. Robertson's decision path (17%) requires consistent control time and ride sequences that accumulate scoring advantage. Lemos's best lane is KO/TKO (25% probability) via power strikes during standing exchanges or counters during Robertson's takedown entries. Lemos by decision (8%) becomes viable if she can consistently stuff takedowns and outpoint Robertson on the feet. Robertson by KO/TKO (10%) is unlikely but possible given Lemos's 4.62 SApM absorption rate and Robertson's ability to land ground-and-pound from top position.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 35% | Primary win path
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Best upset path
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 70% | High finish rate matchup
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Grappler advantage underpriced – Robertson's takedown volume and sub threat favor her heavily.
- • Small cage compounds wrestling edge – 25ft octagon limits Lemos's ability to maintain range.
- • KO volatility overweighted – Lemos's power is real but Robertson's volume-based approach limits clean shot opportunities.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Amanda Lemos
Requires consistent TDD and outpointing on feet
Primary path via power strikes and counters
Low submission profile for Lemos
💥Outcome Distribution - Gillian Robertson
GNP from top position
Control time and ride sequences
Primary win path via chain wrestling
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Amanda Lemos
- • Round 1 striking: Best chance to land clean power shots.
- • Counter during entries: Uppercuts and knees as Robertson shoots.
- • Early finish needed: Path narrows as Robertson establishes grappling.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Gillian Robertson
- • Chain wrestling: Persistent takedowns wear down Lemos's base.
- • Submission threats: Each ground sequence creates finishing chances.
- • Late rounds: Control time accumulates and scoring becomes clearer.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge via grappling dominance but KO volatility adds uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (3.49 vs 0.25 TD15)
- • Elite submission finishing rate (56%)
- • Small cage favors grappling approach
- • Robertson's chain wrestling breaks down TDD over time
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Lemos's 53% KO rate creates constant danger
- • 3-round format limits Robertson's grinding approach
- • Lemos's counter-striking during takedown entries
🏁Executive Summary
Gillian Robertson's persistent grappling approach should allow her to establish control in the 25-foot small octagon, where the compressed space limits Amanda Lemos's ability to maintain effective striking range. Robertson's elite takedown volume (3.49 TD/15min) combined with her dangerous submission game (56% sub win rate) creates a clear path to victory through chain-wrestling and positional control. Lemos's striking advantages (4.48 SLpM, 48% accuracy, 53% KO rate) are real but become less relevant once the fight hits the mat. Robertson's 68% TD defense rate for Lemos is not elite enough to consistently deny the takedown entry. The 3-round format adds some uncertainty as Lemos has more one-shot KO potential in fewer minutes, but Robertson's volume-based approach typically establishes itself by the second round.
Prediction: Robertson by Submission most likely (35% probability) through persistent takedown pressure and dangerous ground game; Lemos's upset lane is KO/TKO (25%) via power strikes during standing exchanges or counters during Robertson's entries. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Robertson can close distance and establish her grappling game before Lemos lands a fight-changing power shot.